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Devcat did the unbelievable and revamped the whole game by dropping most of the tedious arenas and adding a weekly/monthly ladder system.
But pls check the update notes yourself:
Intro from devs,
Patch Notes, Rewards update,
New Summer Event

Official drop rate for each booster (mutant, 5 star cards, etc.)
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The official korean website of Mabinogi Duel has a page listing the probability to pull a specific card from the various boosters on sale.


You can use Google Translate or Microsoft Translator to understand something.

The first column details what is the specific card (e.g. a 3 stars card).
For example the probability to pull a 4 star WNB mutant from the daily mission is 3.7% (much lower than what I expected!).

The second column indicates the drop rate (as a percentage).

The third column, if I understand correctly, shows how many copies of that specific card were pulled while making the simulations to compile the table.

Some probabilty are bizarre. F.e: in the draft misdion the probability to get a 3 star mutant is 7%, 8,4%, 8,6%, 6% for respectively a G1, G2, G3, G4 mutant. No idea on the reason why different drop rates are used for what are essentially the same kind of card (3 star past season mutants).

It seems also true that pulling 0 star mutant in the draft mission isn't straightforward.
Example: G1 0 star mutant=7,3% vs G1 1 star mutant 37,1%.

Not sure on how these probability should be interpreted for mutant and WNBP boosters.
We know that each booster in that case has (or should have) a different drop rate for the featured card.
No drop rate of any booster can be estimated after the 02/09/2017 patch
FoD seems to have more generous percentage than most. Like, there is 19.90% change to obtain ★★★★... Is this common for prerelease boosters?

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